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FACTS, FIGURES, AND FORECASTS, 2019 Part I

As promised, here is part I of 2019’s compilation of Facts, Figures, and Forecasts (F3). I normally would have posted this later this year, but there was a considerable abundance of data, so here ‘tis. By the way many of you have shared your like for this information, so I’ll keep gathering it for periodic postings.

The source citations are at the very end.

Here are the data listings, in this order:

  • Share of Global Commercial Aircraft Fleet Controlled by Lessors
  • Average Age at Retirement vs. Retirals as a Percentage of Total Fleet Production
  • Aircraft Retirement Details 2008-2018
  • Incidents on board becoming more common & more serious
  • Aviation death rate climbs to 500 in 2018
  • Boeing forecasts demand for 2,300 new airplanes in India
  • US Aviation Technician Stats and Education Progress
  • Embraer presents preliminary forecast for 2019 and 2020
  • Freighter aircraft growth and conversions
  • Healthy growth and record passenger loads boosted airlines in 2018
  • Embraer 2018 Deliveries
  • 2018 Avionics Sales Reached a Record $2.7B
  • Honeywell Forecasts 4,000 New Civil Helicopter Deliveries Over Next Five Years
  • Police use of Drones
  • Airbus and Boeing Supplier numbers
  • Fighters/Attack Aircraft Market Share 2019-2023
  • Military Transport Market Share 2019-2023
  • Business Aircraft Market Share 2019-2023
  • Commercial Aircraft Market Share 2019-2023
  • Airframe Heavy Maintenance Demand by Region 2019-2028

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Incidents on board becoming more common & more serious1

  • Unruly passenger incidents are not only increasing, but also becoming more serious, IATA warns. In 2017, one incident was reported every 1,053 flights, while a year earlier one incidents was reported per 1,424 flights.
  • In addition to becoming more frequent, incidents are also becoming more serious. In a year to 2017, level 3 and 4 incidents were reported four times more often (4% versus 1% in 2016). Level 3 refers to life threatening behaviors, while level 4 – attempted or actual breach of flight deck security. However, when a drunk passenger falls onto cockpit door, this could also be classified as level 4 incident.

Royboy: What? Alcohol involved in the incidents? No way….

Aviation death rate climbs to 500 in 20182

  • The year 2018 demonstrated a worse aviation safety performance than 2017, with 32 accidents and 301 fatalities on board recorded in the first half of the year – thus, excluding Lion Air crash. According to Meyer (IATA), another six incidents and 216 deaths happened in the second part of the year, putting the death toll at around 500 in 2018.
  • Nevertheless, it is still a huge safety improvement when compared with 10 years ago. The accident rate increased in half of IATA regions, however, Africa and CIS countries stand out the most. Despite the fact that accident rate in these two regions are falling the most, they still remain well above world average.

Boeing forecasts demand for 2,300 new airplanes in India3

Boeing has raised its long-term forecast for commercial airplanes in India as unprecedented domestic passenger traffic and rapidly expanding low-cost carriers (LCCs) drive the need for 2,300 new jets – valued at US$320 billion – over the next 20 years.

US Aviation Maintenance Technician Stats and Education Progress4

  • The majority of maintenance technician schools reporting anticipate the number of 2018 graduates will increase 10% over 2017, and a further 11% in 2019. And they expect total enrollment to increase 40% in 2019.
  • Furthermore, school capacity is no hurdle. Only one half of the seats in technical schools are now taken, so an additional 17,000 students can be readily accommodated.
  • One problem has been that a substantial portion of aviation technician school graduates has been seeking non-aviation jobs. The latest report says the number seeking non-aviation jobs has now dropped by nearly half, to 13%. And 70% of students are now taking the FAA mechanic exam upon graduation, a 10-point increase over the previous two years.
  • Of 6,401 mechanics certificated in 2017, 63% obtained certification based on completion of a technician school program, 10% based on military experience and 27% based on civilian experience.
  • The FAA now counts 293,000 certificated mechanics, of which females make up 2.4%, a portion that has been constant for 15 years.
  • 30% of mechanics are now 60 years of age or older, which is a 3% increase from the prior year. And new mechanics still account for only 2% of the workforce each year. Unless this rate of replacement is increased, the mechanic population will decline 5% over the next 15 years, the Council projects.

Embraer presents preliminary forecast for 2019 and 20205

  • For 2019, Embraer expects to deliver between 85 and 95 commercial jets, 90 to 110 executive jets, including light and large jets, 10 A-29 Super Tucano aircraft and two multi-mission KC-390 aircraft.

Freighter aircraft growth and conversions6

  • With air cargo traffic more than doubling in the next 20 years, the Boeing analysis shows that world freighter fleet will grow by more than 70%, from the current 1,870 to 3,260 aircraft. More than 63% of deliveries will be freighter conversions, of which nearly 70% will be standard-body passenger types. Also, growing demand for regional express services in fast developing economies will boost the standardbody share of the freighter fleet from 37% today to 39%.

Healthy growth and record passenger loads boosted airlines in 20187

  • Global passenger traffic growth in 2018 rose by an above-average 6.5 percent compared to the previous year as airlines transported more than 4.3 billion passengers and planes were fuller than ever.
  • International passenger traffic in 2018 climbed 6.3 percent, down from 8.6 percent the previous year. Capacity rose 5.7 percent and the load factor increased 0.4 percentage points to 81.2 percent.
  • IATA said all regions recorded increases in traffic, led by the Asia-Pacific (up 7.3 percent), but only North America (up 5 percent) and Africa (up 6.5 percent) did better than the previous year.
  • Middle East carriers (4.2 percent)saw a second year of moderating demand growth and the load factor slipped 0.7 percentage points 74.7 percent, reflecting policy measures and geopolitical tensions.Traffic actually declined 0.1 percent in December, but IATA said this may reflect data volatility.
  • Traffic at Latin American airlines rose 6.9 percent, down from 8.8 percent annual growth in 2017 as strikes in Brazil and geopolitical factors came into play.
  • Global domestic air travel climbed 7 percent in 2018 with all markets showing annual growth, led by double-digit increases in India and China. The load factor increasing marginally to 83 percent.

Embraer 2018 Deliveries8

  • Embraer has delivered a total of 181 jets in 2018, of which 90 were commercial aircraft and 91 were executive jets (64 light and 27 large).

2018 Avionics Sales Reached a Record $2.7B9

  • Worldwide business and general aviation avionics sales increased 17 percent year-over-year in 2018, reaching a record $2.7 billion, according to the Aircraft Electronics Association’s year-end Avionics Market Report released yesterday. This total, which was up from
  • $2.3 billion in 2017, includes some $1.5 billion in retrofit sales and more than $1.1 billion in forward-fit sales (avionics equipment installed by airframe manufacturers during original production), the report said.

Honeywell Forecasts 4,000 New Civil Helicopter Deliveries Over Next Five Years10

  • Honeywell forecasts 4,000 new civilian-use helicopters will be delivered from 2019 to 2023, marginally lower than the 4,200 cited in the five-year forecast from 2018.
  • Purchase plans are stronger from law enforcement and oil and gas operators in this year's survey, but significantly lower from corporate operators.
  • A greater proportion of planned new helicopter purchases are for intermediate/medium twin-engine models in this year's survey compared with 2018. The proportion is lower for light twin-engine. The proportion of light single-engine and heavy twin-engine planned purchases are about the same as last year.
  • When choosing make and model for a new aircraft, the top three factors operators consider are brand experience, aircraft performance and cabin size.

Police Use of Drones11

  • A new report by the Center for the Study of the Drone at Bard College found that 910 state and local first-responder agencies have bought drones in recent years, two-thirds of them law enforcement.
  • Agencies in 619 counties in every state except Rhode Island now have drones, and many have multiple agencies with the technology. Primarily, they are being used to find people who need help in locations traditionally difficult for humans to navigate with conventional vehicles.
  • The Bard study found most agencies with drones did not previously have aerial capability, and 80 percent of those that do now also fly a manned aircraft.

Airbus and Boeing Supplier numbers12

  • Boeing takes in more than a billion parts a year from its supply chain. This equates to $60 Billion a year for its 13,000 suppliers worldwide including 58 countries.
  • Airbus counts 12,000 suppliers from more than 100 countries.

Fighters/Attack Aircraft Market Share 2019-202313

Military Transport Market Share 2019-202313

Business Aircraft Market Share 2019-202313

Commercial Aircraft Market Share 2019-202313

Airframe Heavy Maintenance Demand by Region 2019-202813

Over ‘n out

Roy ‘Royboy’ Resto

President/FAA-DAR

www.AimSolutionsConsulting.com

A Aircraft Commerce Magazine, Fall 2018

1 https://www.aerotime.aero/iatagmd/22174-incidents-on-board-becoming-more-common-more-serious?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email

2https://www.aerotime.aero/iatagmd/22175-aviation-death-rate-climbs-to-500-in-2018?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email

3 https://www.avitrader.com/2018/12/19/boeing-foreca...

4https://www.mro-network.com/workforce/progress-being-made-us-mechanic-development?NL=AW-022&Issue=AW-022_20190102_AW-022_633&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_4&utm_rid=CPEN1000000458220&utm_campaign=17953&utm_medium=email&elq2=565b434147594a52a140f688b898fa57

5https://www.avitrader.com/2019/01/16/embraer-presents-preliminary-forecast-for-2019-and-2020/

6 AviTrader MRO - January 2019, page 30

7 https://www.airlineratings.com/news/healthy-growt...

8 https://www.avitrader.com/2019/02/11/embraer-delivers-90-commercial-and-91-executive-jets-in-2018/

9https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2019-02-20/2018-avionics-sales-reached-record-27b

10https://www.honeywell.com/newsroom/pressreleases/2019/03/honeywell-forecasts-4000-new-civil-helicopter-deliveries-over-next-five-years

11https://www.upi.com/Drones-to-the-rescue-Public-safety-officials-invest-in-UAVs/3181551831983/

12 Aircraft OEMs and Tier 1 to Supply Chain: Show Us the Money; Aviation Week and Space Technology; March 11-24; Page 29

13 Aviation Week & Space Technology; Aerospace and Defense 2019; December 24, 2018- January 13, 2019

Posted By Roy Resto | 4/1/2019 10:23:34 AM