UK politics are getting more interesting. As we predicted a month ago, the UK Parliament will be prorogued next week. This means that the current Parliamentary session (which is already the longest in history) will end and a new session will be started five weeks later. The five week period includes a three week scheduled recess, so it really only eliminates two work weeks; but it also terminates all legislative proposals that remain incomplete at the end of the session (Americans will be familiar with the corollary in Congress, and they will likewise be familiar with the notion that unfinished bills simply get reintroduced in the next session).
With just days left in the current Parliament, Labor leaders have announced plans to take steps to prevent a “no-deal” Brexit, and several prominent conservatives appear ready to support that effort. This could spell the end for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government – potentially leading to snap elections in the middle of the Brexit uncertainty (although the Labour Party has said that it would not vote for a snap election if that would help Johnson deliver a no-deal Brexit.). If elections happen, Johnson could win a majority, strengthening his negotiating position and supporting his “do or die” pledge to leave the EU; or the “stay” contingent could win a majority which might result in a further delay of Brexit pending further negotiations, or even a revocation of the Article 50 declaration (which would keep the UK in the EU). It is equally possible that snap elections (if they happen at all) could lead to a new parliament with the same problem: a slim majority that favors leaving the EU, but another majority that rejects a “no-deal” exit. This is all part of a triangular political battle pitching Boris Johnson and “leave” proponents on one side, British Liberals and other “stay” proponents on another, and the EU on a third side. And right in the middle of the triangle are the people of the UK – waiting to see how it will all lay out. But outside the triangle is another constituency waiting to see the results: the rest of the word (including the global aviation community).
Things are heating up and the next week could see some dramatic action in UK politics.
While the pace of the news about Brexit seems to be getting more frenetic, the scenarios for aviation remain largely unchanged. Our latest guidance and recommendations concerning aircraft parts inventories and transactions continue to be valid, and readers should refers back to the August 8 article for tips and guidance.
The most important thing to know is that the UK CAA, and the other global aviation authorities, have seen this coming for a long time. Preparations have been made for a both “deal” and “no-deal” scenarios. We fully expect issues, because change always creates unforeseen issues, but we also expect that aviation business – on a grand scale – will go on.