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FACTS, FIGURES, AND FORECASTS

Posted By Roy Resto | August 01, 2018

I love reading about facts, figures, and forecasts, or as my military friends would say, F3. I come across quite a few of these and thought you’d enjoy reading them in summary form. Each entry is properly cited. I’ll do these for you once or twice a year.

Airbus forecasts nearly 37,400 new aircraft valued at US$5.8 Trillion required over 20 years.1

  • Fleet will more than double to 48,000 in 20 Years based on traffic growing at 4.4% per year.
  • Growth drivers include private consumption increasing 2.4 times in emerging economies, higher disposable incomes and a near doubling of the middle classes globally.
  • Emerging countries will account for over 60% of economic growth, with trips per capita to multiply 2.5 times for these nations.
  • Of the 37,390 new aircraft required, 26,540 are for growth and 10,850 will replace older generation less fuel efficient aircraft.
  • The more than doubling in the world fleet to 48,000 aircraft results in a need for 540,000 new pilots.

ATR Forecast Demand for new turboprops to exceed 3,000 over next 20 years.2

  • Valued in excess of US$80 Billion.
  • Over the next 20 years 2,770 new routes will be created and that 30% of regional traffic will come from routes which do not currently exist.
  • According to ATR, turboprops operate half of the flights below 330nm all over the world, the most fuel-efficient solution for short-hauls.

Raw Deals. 3

  • The Global Aerospace Industry consumes some 1.7 Billion Pounds of raw material per year worth an estimated $13 Billion.
  • Titanium comprises 30% of this total, followed by aluminum 22%, composites 21%, super alloys 14%, and steel 9%.

The number of aircraft owned by the US Military: 4

  • 13,000

Lines of code in Military and Commercial aircraft: 5

  • “Military and Commercial aircraft can contain more than 75 million lines of code.”

Monies spent by the US Agriculture Department in 2017 fighting wildfires (including firefighting aircraft):6

  • $2.4 Billion – 56% of its budget

For my fellow Avionics geeks: Number of accidental false alerts generated by ELTs (Emergency Locator Transmitter) in all of 2017:7, 17

  • 8,786 false alerts in just the USA. These accidental activations can be caused during testing, mishandling, improper installation, or unfamiliarity with beacon operation.
  • Search and Rescue (SAR) personnel respond immediately to every activation of a 406 Hz SAR Satellite -Aided Tracking (SARSAT) beacon. This response will stop only when it has been proven that the activation was a false alert.
  • A false alert is a non -distress activation of a 406 MHz emergency beacon (either an ELT, Personal Locator Beacon [PLB], or Emergency Position-Indicating Radio Beacon [EPIRB] for maritime use).

The US Air Force recently retired the history-setting Predator UAS, Unmanned Aerial System or RPA, Remotely Piloted Aircraft (Drone to outsiders). This is the Drone that made Drones a household name in the military and changed ISR, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance, forever. Here are some interesting stats: 8, 9

  • From its first operational missions through early 2018, the Predator flew a total of 135,750 sorties and 2,061,864 flight hours. Of that total, 1,904,287 flight hours were in combat—92.4 percent of its flying total.
  • Number built: 360, by General Atomics.
  • Major Variants; At first, RQ-1 (for reconnaissance) then MQ-1 (“Multi Mission” after it was armed with the Hellfire Missile).
  • Engine: Rotax 914F.
  • Replaced by the MQ-9 Reaper.

Last year in 2017, the NTSB, National Transportation Safety Board, analyzed: 10

  • 432 recording devices across different transportation modes. About 10% came from foreign accident investigations. These included:
    • 82 GoPro Cameras or other image recorders.
    • 49 personal electronic devices such as mobile phones and tablet computers.
    • 45 Flight data recorders.
    • 29 Locomotive event data recorders.
    • 4 Marine voyage data recorders.
    • 26 Cockpit Voice Recorders.
    • It categorized the remaining 197 as ‘other’ devices such as engine monitors, glass cockpit displays and handheld GPS units.

2018 Commercial Aircraft Stats: 11

  • Commercial In-Service Fleet: 28, 854
  • Commercial Aircraft Order Backlog: 15, 169

3D Printing stats: 12

  • ‘Frost & Sullivan anticipates the global 3D printing materials market to for the aerospace industry to US$535.1 Million by 2024, with an impressive compound annual growth rate of 20.3% between 2017 and 2024.’

Suspect Counterfeit and Non-Conforming parts in the global electronic parts supply chain: 12

  • ERAI reported a total of 771 suspect counterfeit and nonconforming parts in 2017

The number of Aerospace companies globally, listed in OASIS (Online Aerospace Supplier Information System) as accredited to ISO/AS/EN standards: 13

  • 19,232 Certifications listed.

Various stats from Oliver Wyman: 14

  • Current Global Commercial Air Transport MRO Market: $77 Billion.
  • 2028 Global Commercial Air Transport MRO Market: $114.7 Billion.
  • A survey of MRO’s found that 84% of respondents are currently experiencing labor imbalances.
  • The US commercial MRO workforce has 86,000 maintenance technicians with a median age of 51, 9 years older than that of the US labor force.

Various stats from ICF: 15

  • Number of airliners expected to be retired between 2017-2026: Approximately 9,100.
  • Of the $75.5 Billion MRO market recorded in 2017, the spends broke down as follows:
    • Engines: 42%
    • Components: 21%
    • Line: 17%
    • Airframe: 13%
    • Modifications: 7%
  • The air transport industry spends ~$31.5B on aftermarket material, including OEM material, surplus parts and PMA alternatives.
  • 2017 commercial air transport PMA demand was ~$650M, N. America and Europe remain the key regions.
  • PMA spend (~$650M) by segment:
    • Cabin & Components: 60%
    • Engine: 33%
    • Airframe: 7%
  • PMA is set to grow significantly over the next decade, growing at a 5.8% CAGR to >$1.15B by 2027.

Many of you who are personally certificated or credentialed by the government to perform your aviation duties are aware of NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System. ASRS captures confidential reports, analyzes the resulting aviation safety data, and disseminates vital information to the aviation community. Persons who voluntarily report incidents are given a degree of immunity from enforcement actions against their certificates or credentials. The success of this program in protecting individuals (Pilots, Technicians, Dispatchers, Controllers, Cabin Crew, others) and as a means of gathering safety information has led to various Civil Aviation Authorities around the world instituting similar programs. According to ASRS: 16

  • Over 95,000 reports for 2017.
  • Over 7,944 reports per month, or 378 per working day.

Space Cadet:

  • Since 2014, there has been a nearly 90% increase in the number of satellites in orbit, to a current estimated 2,270.18
  • Space X and OneWeb are planning mega constellations of smaller satellites which will boost this to over 12,000 by the mid 2020’s.18
  • Number of Launches from Air Force Ranges:19
    • 2016: 25
    • 2017: 33
    • 2018: 50 (projected)

Crazy Busy Airport/Fly-in. Put this on your bucket list. Attend an EAA air show fly-in (called Airventure) at Oshkosh, WI. You have never seen anything like it; a hoot. Regarding air traffic control: 20

  • Oshkosh (KOSH) is the busiest control tower in the world during EAA AirVenture.
  • 64 controllers from around the US come to Oshkosh to work the show.
  • Controllers work in 4 person teams, with a total of 16 teams.
  • During AirVenture, air traffic controllers have reduced horizontal separation minimums of 1,500 feet between airplanes. Normally, separation minimums are 3,000 feet between aircraft. This allows controllers to land up to 3 aircraft at a time on a runway. How is that done? There are different colored dots painted on each runway. Aircraft are cleared to land on a specific colored dot.
  • An estimated 10,000 aircraft will land at the fly-in.

Global Defense Spending Rising: 21

  • In 2008 the amount spent globally by all nations on defense: ? 1.6 Trillion $USD
  • Forecasted for 2022: 2 Trillion $USD

Flight delays in Europe due to Air Traffic Management issues: 22

  • Data from The European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (Eurocontrol) shows that in the first half of 2018, Air Traffic Management (ATM) delays more than doubled to 47,000 minutes per day, 133% more than in the same period last year.
  • Most of these delays are caused by staffing and capacity shortages as well as other causes such as weather delays and disruptive events such as strikes. The average delay for flights delayed by air traffic control limitations reached 20 minutes in July, with the longest delay reaching 337 minutes.

Over ‘n out

Roy ‘Royboy’ Resto

AIM Solutions Consulting

www.AimSolutionsConsulting.com

1 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2018-2037.
2 https://www.avitrader.com/2018/07/03/atr-forecasts-demand-for-new-turboprops-to-exceed-3000-over-next-20-years/
3 Up Front, Kevin Michaels; Aviation Week & Space Technology; May 21-June3, 2018; Page 12.
4 How the Pentagon Tries to Stay Ahead of Cyberattacks, Jen DiMascio; Aviation Week & Space Technology; June 18-July 1, 2018; Page 49.
5 Synopsys Advertisement; Aviation Week & Space Technology; June 18-July 1, 2018; Page 2
6 Fires Fuel Renewal, Graham Warwick and James Drew; Aviation Week & Space Technology; February 26-March 11, 2018; Page 44.
7 SARSAT Beacon Accidental Activation Prevention Initiative; Avionics News; June 2018;
Page 9.
8https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator
9 Elegy for the Predator, Brian W. Everstine; Air Force Magazine; July 2018; Page 19
10 More data Infuses NTSB’s Proven Approach, Bill Carey; Aviation Week & Space Technology; April 9-22, 2018; Page 68.
11 Orders and Deliveries; Flight International; 5-11 June, 2018; Page 27.
12 http://www.erai.com/ERAI_Blog/3139/__2017_ERAI_Reported_Parts_Analysis
13 Update on Transition Timeline, Walter Sam O’Connor; Presentation during the 2018 ASA Conference to the QA Committee.
14 AVIATION LABOR SHORTAGE FORECAST, Neil McConachie; June 26, 2018; Presentation at the 2018 ASA Conference.
15 THE MRO MARKET & KEY TRENDS, Richard Brown; ASA Annual Conference
26 June 2018.
16 NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), Linda J Connell; https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20170010289.pdf
17https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USAFAA/2018/07/18/file_attachments/1041070/InFO18007.pdf
18 Viewpoint: Space Congestion Threatens To ‘Darken Skies’, Bill Beyer and Nicholas Nelson; National Defense; July 2018; Page 35.
19 By the Numbers; National Defense; July 2018; Page 5.
20 http://www.boldmethod.com/blog/lists/2018/07/ten-things-you-should-know-about-the-busiest-control-tower-in-the-world/
21 Boom Times, Michael Bruno; Aviation Week & Space Technology; July 16-29, 2018; Page 77.
22https://www.aerotime.aero/aerotime.team/21607-iata-calls-for-urgent-action-to-tackle-european-atc-delays?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=sas_faces_crewing_issues_says_theyre_blown_out_of_proportion_aerotime&utm_term=2018-07-31